Laying Plans
A chapter summary from The Art of War by Sun Tzu.
“Before any movement, the campaign is decided by deliberate assessment, not by courage in the field.”
Sun Tzu opens with the claim that frames the entire book: war is a matter of vital importance to the state, the province of life or death, the road to safety or ruin — and therefore the object of study no ruler can neglect. Before any movement, the campaign is decided by deliberate assessment, not by courage in the field.
Five constant factors govern the appraisal. The Moral Law (the Tao) is whether the people are in harmony with their ruler, willing to follow him into danger. Heaven is night and day, cold and heat, the cycle of seasons — timing and conditions. Earth is distances, danger and security, open and narrow ground, the chances of life and death. The Commander stands for wisdom, sincerity, benevolence, courage, and strictness. Method and discipline are the marshalling of the army, its ranks, its supply lines, and the control of expenditure.
From these five, Sun Tzu derives seven comparative questions a general must answer honestly: which ruler holds the Moral Law; which general has greater ability; with whom lie the advantages of heaven and earth; on which side is discipline more rigorously enforced; which army is the stronger; whose officers and men are better trained; in which army is there greater consistency in reward and punishment. "By means of these seven considerations," he writes, "I can forecast victory or defeat."
The chapter's most quoted move follows: "All warfare is based on deception." Appear unable when you are able; appear inactive when you are active; seem far when near and near when far. Hold out baits to lure the enemy; feign disorder to crush him; if he is secure at all points, prepare for him; if he is in superior strength, evade him; if he is irascible, irritate him; if he is taking his ease, give him no rest. Attack where he is unprepared; appear where you are not expected. These devices win the campaign before contact, but their whole power lies in being unforeseen, so none of them can be divulged in advance.
The practical lesson reaches far beyond literal warfare. Outcomes are determined by calculations made in the "temple" before the campaign — "the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought; the general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand." Many calculations lead to victory, few to defeat, and none at all to certain ruin. Assess before acting, count your real advantages without flattery, and govern what the other side is allowed to see of you. The leader who can answer the seven questions truthfully already knows the result before the contest begins.
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